DETERMINATION OF FACTORS INFLUENCING WATER VOLUME IN TOKTOGUL RESERVOIRS USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Abstract

This article analyzes the volume of water at the Toktogul HPP by years and the predicted volume of water in this reservoir. Create and define a mathematical model to predict water volume using a scalar calculation algorithm and multivariate regression equations. Assessment of the volume of water stored in the Toktogul reservoir belongs to the class of complex objects with a large number of independent factors. In this regard, production should be based on the following criteria: factors that do not affect the target function, and correlated factors (strong internal connection). For the study, we use data on the volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir by years. The study showed that both methods of obtaining a regression equation with several variables are adequate, and these methods (models) allow us to conclude that they are suitable for estimating the volume of accumulated water. To obtain an adequate mathematical model for the estimated volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir, it is proposed to reduce the list of factors to a minimum, since the complexity of modeling increases depending on the degree as the number of factors increases.